# Exercise 2

Exercise 2: Uncertainty of probability of decline estimates.

Choose a % decline: 20, 50 or 80

Type 'Lab3' at the prompt. Pick a dataset. Make plots for each of 3 time horizons: 10, 25, 50 years

Copy into a Word document.

Do this for a few other datasets.

Summarize what you see in terms of how precisely the probability of decline is estimated and whether uncertainty at one time horizon translates into uncertainty at other time horizons.

Choose a % decline: 20, 50 or 80

Type 'Lab3' at the prompt. Pick a dataset. Make plots for each of 3 time horizons: 10, 25, 50 years

Copy into a Word document.

Do this for a few other datasets.

Summarize what you see in terms of how precisely the probability of decline is estimated and whether uncertainty at one time horizon translates into uncertainty at other time horizons.

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