# Exercise 3

Exercise 3: Uncertainty about probability of 80% decline in 20 years, but relative certainty about 80% decline within 50 years

Type 'Lab3' at the prompt.

Pick dataset 1.

Pick 80% decline in 20 years.

Questions:

1. How is it that we can be pretty uncertain about whether there will be an 80% decline in 20 years, but have high certainty of eventual 80% decline? Look at the s2p and s2s estimates. Try running SimCDA with those. Look at the histogram of mu (fig 2, top left panel). Try running SimCDA with some of the other mu values in the histogram.

Type 'Lab3' at the prompt.

Pick dataset 1.

Pick 80% decline in 20 years.

Questions:

1. How is it that we can be pretty uncertain about whether there will be an 80% decline in 20 years, but have high certainty of eventual 80% decline? Look at the s2p and s2s estimates. Try running SimCDA with those. Look at the histogram of mu (fig 2, top left panel). Try running SimCDA with some of the other mu values in the histogram.

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