I am a population analyst for the National Marine Fisheries Service. In this role, I assist in viability analyses for Pacific Northwest Biological Recovery Teams and Technical Recovery Teams who are responsible for status analyses for petitioned and listed species. I have been involved in recent analyses for Steller sea lions, Southern resident killer whales, Columbia River salmon, Pacific Herring, and PNW Rockfish. My basic research in this area is on the development, estimation, and cross-validation of diffusion approximation methods for calculation of viability risk metrics -- especially when data are variously corrupted. My recent papers in this area include:
Fagan, W. F. and E. E. Holmes. 2005. Quantifying the extinction vortex. Ecology Letters.
Holmes, E. E., W. F. Fagan, J. J. Rango, A. Folarin, J. A. Sorensen, J. E. Lippe, and N. E. McIntyre. 2004. Cross-validation of quasi-extinction risks from real time series: an examination of diffusion approximation methods. U.S. Dept. Commer., NOAA Tech. Memo. In press.
Holmes, E. E. 2004. Beyond theory to application and evaluation: diffusion approximations for population viability analysis. Ecological Applications 14: 1272-1293.
Holmes, E. E. and B. Semmens. 2004. Population viability analysis for metapopulations: a diffusion approximation approach. In Metapopulation Biology, editors Illka Hanski et al.
Sabo, J. L., E. E. Holmes, and P. Kareiva. 2004. The efficacy of simple viability models in ecological risk assessment: Does density dependence matter? Ecology 85: 328-341.
McClure, M. M., E. E. Holmes, B. L. Sanderson, and C. E. Jordan. 2003. A large-scale, multi-species risk assessment: anadromous salmonids in the Columbia River Basin. Ecological Applications 13(4):964-989.
Holmes, E. E. and W. F. Fagan. 2002. Validating population viability analysis for corrupted data sets. Ecology 83: 2379-2386.
Holmes, E. E. 2001. Estimating risks in declining populations with poor data. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science 98: 5072-5077.
Most of my publications can be downloaded on-line at